Rome Awaits White Smoke: Cardinals Prepare to Elect New Pope in Historic Conclave

 

The unmistakable signs of a papal election have begun to emerge in the heart of Vatican City. On Friday morning, technicians quietly completed the installation of a small, unassuming chimney atop the Sistine Chapel — a conduit through which the world will learn whether the Catholic Church has chosen its next leader.

Set against the grandeur of Michelangelo’s timeless frescoes, the 15th-century chapel will once again serve as the sacred theatre for the selection of the next pope, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21. The conclave is scheduled to begin on Wednesday, May 7 at 4:30 p.m. local time (1430 GMT), when 133 eligible cardinals will be locked within the Apostolic Palace to begin the solemn task of electing a new pontiff.

Rome has entered a period of anticipation and reverence. Tourists continue to wander the ancient city’s cobblestoned streets, but for many Catholics, the mood is reflective and prayerful. "It definitely is a historic moment and it definitely feels special to be in Rome," shared Glenn Atherton, a visitor from London standing in St Peter’s Square. “It feels like a once-in-a-lifetime thing.”

Only cardinals under the age of 80 are permitted to vote, though all have been participating in daily general congregations — closed-door discussions intended to deliberate on the needs of the global Church and the characteristics required in its next shepherd. These meetings have been taking place in the days leading up to the conclave, blending prayer with strategic dialogue.

While the process is steeped in centuries-old tradition, the politics of papal selection remain as unpredictable as ever. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin — who served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State under Pope Francis — and Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson are among the most frequently mentioned potential frontrunners. Still, the adage often whispered in Vatican corridors serves as a reminder: “He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal.”

That sentiment echoes strongly with older members of the College of Cardinals, including Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez of El Salvador, who, despite being too old to vote, has participated in preparatory sessions. “I think the Church is in prayer mode, but it must also put itself in surprise mode,” he told reporters. “Remember what happened with Pope Francis — what a surprise!”

Two of the 135 cardinals initially expected to cast ballots have withdrawn due to health concerns, reducing the number of electors to 133. A two-thirds majority — 89 votes — will be required to elect the new pope, who can technically be any baptized male but is virtually always one of the cardinals.

On the first day, just one vote will be held following the oath of secrecy, a deeply solemn moment that includes a warning of excommunication for anyone who breaks confidentiality. In the days that follow, the pace will accelerate: two votes in the morning, followed by two in the afternoon. Ballots are burned after the second vote of each session — not after each individual ballot — with the resulting smoke indicating the outcome to the outside world.

Black smoke signals no decision. White smoke means the Catholic Church has a new leader. This ancient method of communication, though theatrical, remains the sole public indication of the conclave’s result.

Over the centuries, smoke signals caused confusion more than once. Prior to 2005, wet straw and tar were used to produce either white or black smoke. However, ambiguous grey plumes often left onlookers guessing. The Vatican has since refined the method, now employing a carefully controlled mix of chemicals to produce a clearer signal.

During the 2013 conclave, which elected Francis, the Vatican revealed it used potassium perchlorate, anthracene, and sulfur to generate black smoke, while potassium chlorate, lactose, and rosin created the distinctive white smoke. Two separate stoves operate side by side — one for burning the ballots, the other for igniting the chemical compounds — with both sending their emissions through the same flue to the chapel’s chimney.

No official word has yet been released confirming whether this same method will be used in the upcoming conclave, though its effectiveness in avoiding confusion makes it likely.

As the global Catholic community braces for the announcement, attention is turning once more to the spiritual and political direction the new pope will take. Pope Francis, a reform-minded Argentine, led the Church through 12 years of significant — and at times controversial — change. His passing has left a leadership vacuum at a time when the Church faces a complex web of challenges: declining church attendance in the West, sexual abuse scandals, ongoing theological debates, and calls for inclusivity from younger generations of believers.

The man chosen to take up the mantle of St. Peter will inherit these burdens, along with the expectations of 1.4 billion Catholics around the world. Until then, the world watches the chimney above the Sistine Chapel — waiting for smoke, and a sign.