Political Calm or Calculated Strategy? Mark Jacob Predicts Fubara’s Possible Shift to APC After Tinubu’s Intervention

Former National Legal Adviser of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mark Jacob, has weighed in on the recent political ceasefire orchestrated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu between the suspended Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. His comments suggest skepticism over the long-term impact of the deal, warning that Fubara’s next political move may be a defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Jacob, while speaking during a segment of The Morning Brief on Channels Television, made it clear that the possibility of Fubara leaving the PDP should not be ruled out. He pointed to the current political climate, where loyalty and ideology often take a back seat to personal interest and survival.

Appearing cautious yet direct, Jacob noted that if the APC offers Fubara an enticing political incentive, such as a guaranteed continuation in office or protection from political pressure, a defection could be imminent. “So if they dangle a carrot to Siminalayi and tell him to come over to APC so that he can reclaim his seat, I will not be shocked if he agrees, because it’s all about me. ‘What will I gain’,” he stated, emphasizing the prevailing attitude among many political actors.

President Tinubu’s intervention on Thursday night brought together key figures at the Presidential Villa in Abuja. Among those present were Fubara, Wike, and members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, many of whom are currently under suspension due to the state’s protracted political standoff. The meeting was a significant development after months of tension and infighting that had paralyzed governance in Rivers.

Jacob’s remarks add a fresh perspective to the unfolding events, casting doubt on whether true reconciliation was achieved during the meeting. He raised concerns over what he described as an anti-democratic precedent — the suspension of duly elected officials without due process. His argument highlighted the constitutional dangers of executive interference in state-level political affairs and questioned the legality of recent developments.

Tensions in Rivers have been mounting for months, as Wike and his former protégé Fubara find themselves on opposite sides of a deepening rift. The struggle appears rooted in control over the state’s political machinery and key appointments. Although Wike played a crucial role in Fubara’s emergence as governor, their alliance began to fray shortly after the 2023 general elections.

President Tinubu’s decision to step in is being viewed as an attempt to contain the crisis before it spirals further. Yet, according to Jacob, such top-down peace efforts may only offer a temporary patch to a structurally fragile political arrangement. He maintained that the optics of unity presented after the Abuja meeting might mask a deeper contest of interests and unresolved power plays.

“It’s easy to gather for photographs and issue joint statements,” Jacob remarked, “but unless there’s a real change in the behavior and intent of the actors involved, we’re only postponing another political blow-up.”

He also cited the growing number of defections from the PDP to the APC as a sign of political instability, warning that the ruling party could exploit the Rivers situation to further weaken the opposition. Jacob’s comments come amid mounting criticism that the APC’s dominance at the federal level has allowed it to pressure opposition figures into compliance or co-opt them altogether.

Political observers have noted that Fubara has kept a low profile since the crisis began, focusing largely on administrative duties while sidestepping direct confrontations. However, the recent interventions suggest he may now be more exposed to political calculations beyond his control. If he does defect, it would mark yet another high-profile switch in a political system increasingly defined by convenience rather than ideology.

The broader implications of this potential shift could redefine the PDP’s strength in Rivers and the South-South region at large. The party, once dominant in the zone, has suffered significant losses over the last two election cycles. Jacob’s comments may serve as both a warning and a reflection on the current state of Nigerian politics, where party lines are blurred and principles often yield to pragmatism.

As events continue to unfold in the coming weeks, all eyes will remain on Fubara’s next move. Will he stand firm within the PDP, or will political expediency lead him across the aisle into the APC’s embrace? For now, the peace holds, but as Jacob and other analysts suggest, the real test may just be beginning.