The Endgame of Power: Tinubu's Calculated Play for 2027 and the Fate of Nigerian Democracy

 

As the clock ticks toward the 2027 general elections, a shadowy game of political maneuvering is playing out behind the scenes, one that is more than just a contest for power. It is an existential struggle for control over the future of Nigeria. At the center of this storm is President Bola Tinubu, whose political strategy seems to be unfolding with chilling precision, leaving few players untouched in the political landscape. This is no mere power struggle – it is a ruthless blueprint for domination, a game of chess in which the stakes are nothing less than the soul of the nation.

A Strategy of Control and Subjugation

From the outset of his presidency, Tinubu’s approach has been marked by a singular goal: absolute control. Unlike his political allies or adversaries, Tinubu has not played the typical game of Nigerian politics, driven by the need for survival or short-term victories. His focus is on long-term, systemic domination that cuts across all sectors of governance.

A significant part of this strategy has been the calculated manipulation of the economy. By devaluing the Naira, removing subsidies, and imposing harsh tax policies, Tinubu has placed millions of Nigerians in a position where their survival is directly tied to his governance. This economic siege has forced state governors, lawmakers, and influential business figures into a corner where they must align with him or risk financial ruin.

Beyond economic control, Tinubu’s grip on the country’s political machinery is tightening. The judiciary, once seen as an independent arm of government, has been brought under his sway, while the National Assembly has been reduced to little more than a rubber stamp for his policies. Security agencies, too, are increasingly staffed by his loyalists, ensuring that any opposition remains stifled.

The Disintegration of Opposition Parties

In his quest for supremacy, Tinubu has not only neutralized his political opponents but has systematically dismantled the opposition. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a strong contender for power, has been fractured from within, primarily through defections and internal sabotage, spearheaded by figures like Nyesom Wike. The Labour Party, which had become a stronghold for reform-minded Nigerians under Peter Obi, faces relentless pressure from both the government and the media. Meanwhile, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), once seen as a force for change, remains confined to the Kano state, lacking the infrastructure to make a meaningful national impact.

Tinubu’s manipulation of the electoral system has been equally disturbing. The Edo election served as a grim preview of what is to come: a contest that was little more than a charade, with rigging and manipulation at the heart of the process. The 2027 elections, some believe, will be no different, with the contest turning into a battle of who can control the electoral body, the judiciary, and the security agencies.

The South-South Gambit: A Region in Flux

Perhaps the most contentious element of Tinubu’s strategy involves Rivers State and the broader South-South region. Former Governor Nyesom Wike, once seen as a key ally in Tinubu’s rise to power, has become an increasingly unstable force, threatening to destabilize the region’s political balance. For Tinubu, the South-South is a critical battleground. Without it, his path to victory in 2027 becomes uncertain. By keeping the region in a state of political turmoil, Tinubu ensures that the South-South remains vulnerable to manipulation, with Wike playing a central but increasingly tenuous role.

But the people of the South-South are beginning to see through the fog of political manipulation. Wike, once a formidable political figure, is no longer the unchallenged leader he once was. The electorate is waking up to the realization that their votes are being sold in a game much larger than their own interests. The ultimate question is whether they will rise to resist or be swept away once again by promises of power.

The Growing Dissent in the North and the Igbo Factor

While Tinubu has cultivated loyalty among certain key figures, such as Kashim Shettima and other Northern elites, cracks are beginning to show in the North’s support for his leadership. The North, long patient with the failures of President Muhammadu Buhari, is beginning to hold Tinubu accountable for the worsening economic conditions. The former Governor of Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai, whose political acumen is well-known, could become a key figure in rallying Northern dissent against Tinubu in 2027. If he succeeds in forming a new coalition, it could pose a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s grip on power.

The Igbo factor remains another wild card in this political game. The Southeast, long marginalized, is now more politically awake and determined to assert its voice. Unlike in the past, where politicians like Orji Uzor Kalu and Rochas Okorocha served as intermediaries, the region’s political landscape has shifted. Figures like Governor Soludo and Governor Umahi are seen as too isolated to sway the masses. The true power in the Southeast lies with the likes of Peter Obi and the agitator Nnamdi Kanu, whose support base remains a potent force in Nigerian politics.

The Silent Threat: The Nigerian People’s Apathy

Despite these complex political maneuvers, Tinubu’s most dangerous weapon may be the apathy of the Nigerian people. If Nigerians fail to awaken to the threat posed by Tinubu’s strategy, they will be complicit in the eventual death of democracy in the country. Passive acceptance, waiting until the eve of the 2027 elections, will likely result in a rigged process that leaves little room for genuine opposition.

The only way to prevent the country’s descent into autocracy is for Nigerians to engage actively in the political process. Electoral reforms must be pursued immediately, not after the fact. Free speech and opposition voices must be defended, and Nigerians must engage in sustained political action to ensure that their democracy remains intact.

Conclusion: A Game of High Stakes

In the grand scheme of Nigerian politics, Tinubu is playing a long game. His strategy is one of deep, systemic manipulation that spans the economy, the judiciary, the military, and the electoral process. Yet, his biggest misstep may lie in his overconfidence. He is alienating the North, underestimating the power of the Igbo factor, and gambling with the South-South.

For Nigerians, the time to act is now. If they fail to resist, Tinubu’s grand chessboard strategy will succeed, and the country may never be the same again. The battle for the soul of Nigeria is just beginning, and it is up to the people to decide its fate.

Written by Asiegbu Agwu Nkpa – 08061111374 / +234.8061111374