“Hogwash and Hopes”: Dr. Dele Sobowale Slams Tinubu’s Economic Blueprint as Unrealistic and Politically Driven

 

Sobowale: Tinubu’s Administration Built on Crumbling Economic Promises, Not Pragmatism

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic performance has come under sharp scrutiny as Nigerians continue to grapple with rising costs of living, business uncertainty, and insecurity. At the Vanguard Conference Hall, respected columnist and economist Dr. Dele Sobowale delivered a stinging critique of the Tinubu administration, describing the government’s economic promises as detached from reality and driven more by political considerations than sound planning.

Sobowale, a veteran policy analyst and commentator, pulled no punches while examining the President’s Renewed Hope Agenda, calling the document “hogwash”—a political wish list, not a viable economic strategy. According to him, the administration began on a deeply flawed foundation, largely inherited from the preceding Buhari government—ironically, a regime that Tinubu helped install.

“You cannot construct a sustainable economic programme on the political ruins of the past,” Sobowale declared. “What Tinubu inherited was a disaster, and yet he chose to stand on it. That alone tells you how badly misjudged this journey is.”

A key concern for Sobowale was the volume of unrealistic targets embedded in the President’s blueprint. He cited the 2025 oil production projection of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) as a glaring example. As of April 2025, Nigeria had only managed around 1.4 mbpd, with the average since Tinubu assumed office hovering at 1.5 mbpd.

“Expecting 4 million barrels by 2027 is a pipe dream,” he said. “It’s not a curse; it’s a fact.”

He also raised alarm over the recycling of loyalists from Lagos into federal roles. “Lagos is not Nigeria,” Sobowale emphasized. “Just because someone served as a commissioner in Lagos does not mean they have what it takes to manage federal ministries. The scale, complexity, and national dynamics are entirely different.”

Beyond economic miscalculations, the deteriorating security landscape was another critical issue in Sobowale’s analysis. Drawing from over two decades of experience working in northern Nigeria, he painted a dire picture of a nation overwhelmed by multiple layers of violent conflict.

From his time in Sokoto and Borno states, he recalled identifying dozens of illegal border crossings as far back as the 1990s. That number has since ballooned, with current estimates running into the hundreds—exacerbating smuggling, terrorism, and communal violence. He explained that what once began as the Boko Haram insurgency has morphed into a complex web of ethnic and armed conflicts across the North and Middle Belt.

“In places like Taraba, Plateau, and Benue states, communities have stopped waiting for the Army or the Police. They are arming themselves and launching retaliatory attacks,” he warned. “This is a dangerous spiral. It’s no longer just about Boko Haram or ISWAP—it’s a fragmented, multi-front conflict.”

Sobowale was especially critical of the Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Zulum, for granting amnesty to thousands of so-called repentant Boko Haram members. He questioned the logic and effectiveness of reintegrating combatants without robust mechanisms for tracking and accountability.

“Many of these so-called repentant terrorists are back in the system, creating more chaos. This has only added to the challenges our security forces face,” he noted grimly. “Morale is collapsing. Soldiers and officers don’t want to be posted to these hotspots anymore. Who would willingly walk into a battlefield with no clear enemy and no exit plan?”

Turning to fiscal policy, Sobowale drew parallels between corporate budgeting and government projections, lamenting the chronic disconnect between revenue expectations and actual performance. He referenced Nigeria’s persistent reliance on crude oil revenue projections of 2 mbpd—a benchmark that has not been met even once since 2013.

“Budgets should be promises you can keep. If you say N54 trillion in revenue and only pull in N40 trillion, in the private sector, you'd be fired,” he argued. “Yet in government, this cycle of overpromising and underdelivering continues year after year.”

Sobowale’s broader critique of the federal budget process points to a systemic lack of discipline and a refusal to align policy with empirical realities. He questioned the bloated size of government, including the unprecedented appointment of 48 ministers, stating, “No other country runs such a cumbersome cabinet. Why should Nigeria be the exception?”

In forecasting the remainder of Tinubu’s first term, Sobowale offered a sobering outlook. Without recalibrating the country’s fiscal and security strategies, he believes the situation could deteriorate further.

“Realistic budgeting imposes discipline,” he emphasized. “A family that earns N2 million cannot promise to live on N5 million. That gap breeds debt, corruption, and disillusionment. This government must wake up to that reality.”

As Nigeria navigates a challenging economic and security terrain, Sobowale’s message is clear: without honest self-assessment and bold policy recalibration, the hope promised by the Tinubu administration may remain elusive for millions of citizens.