Southern PDP Governors Eye Massive Defection Amid Mounting Pressure to Back Tinubu in 2027

 

Growing political tremors within Nigeria’s opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are pointing to a widening crack in its southern flank, as more governors from the region edge closer to backing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election campaign in 2027.

Behind closed doors, high-stakes consultations are accelerating, revealing an emerging consensus among key political actors: preserving the country’s fragile geopolitical balance may demand Southern solidarity for Tinubu's continued stay in Aso Rock. The informal yet deeply entrenched agreement on power rotation between the North and South, a longstanding feature of Nigeria’s political equilibrium, is proving to be a decisive factor.

President Tinubu, who assumed office in 2023 following two terms under Northern leadership by Muhammadu Buhari, is increasingly perceived by Southern stakeholders as the South’s rightful representative for two consecutive terms. A trusted source familiar with these developments described the thinking in Southern political circles as strategic rather than partisan.

“The belief is that Tinubu should be allowed to complete what Buhari did for the North—eight years in power. Many PDP governors are quietly aligning with this view,” the source said, adding that political calculations are being reframed through the lens of national stability and regional fairness.

Signs of this alignment have already surfaced. Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori has officially crossed over to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). In Akwa Ibom, Governor Umo Eno recently made headlines for likening the PDP to a "faulty plane," a thinly veiled jab at the party’s internal dysfunctions. Though not a formal defection, the metaphor was widely interpreted as a signal of impending realignment.

At present, the PDP controls six governorship seats in the South: Bayelsa (Douye Diri), Oyo (Seyi Makinde), Osun (Ademola Adeleke), Akwa Ibom (Umo Eno), Enugu (Peter Mbah), and Rivers (Siminalayi Fubara). Yet this once-dominant bloc is showing increasing susceptibility to fragmentation, with the APC expanding its influence since 2015.

A two-term governor from the South-South zone has reportedly intensified efforts to declare public support for Tinubu. According to political insiders, he met recently with leaders of his ethnic group to seek endorsement before making his defection official. Tensions between him and top PDP figures in his state have reached a boiling point, creating fertile ground for his potential exit.

Another South-South governor, already in Tinubu’s corner, is said to be lobbying his predecessor to jump ship as well. However, internal political rivalries are stalling the move, as the former governor remains wary of unresolved feuds with his own predecessor—underscoring the complexities of defection in Nigeria’s layered political terrain.

Multiple sources attribute this wave of political realignment to the PDP’s ongoing internal crisis. Chief among the grievances is the unresolved tussle over the party’s national secretary position, coupled with a broader uncertainty regarding the party’s strategic direction for the 2027 general elections.

One source pointed to widespread disillusionment: “Many PDP governors are fed up with the confusion. They don’t see a viable path forward with the current leadership, and they’re beginning to look elsewhere for political survival and relevance.”

All eyes are now on the PDP’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for May 27. The gathering is expected to serve as a crucial inflection point, with decisions on leadership restructuring, zoning formulae, and a roadmap to 2027 on the agenda.

Analysts warn that the outcome could either salvage the party’s unity or accelerate its disintegration. If the meeting fails to deliver clarity and cohesion, the PDP may witness a cascade of defections that could decisively alter the trajectory of the next presidential contest.

While the PDP struggles with internal divisions, the APC appears to be strategically consolidating its base, drawing in erstwhile opponents under the banner of regional equity and national continuity. The political chessboard is shifting rapidly, and with 2027 still over two years away, the race may have already begun.