Food on the Edge: Nigeria’s Agricultural Engine Sputters as Insecurity and Climate Shocks Stall Growth

 

Nigeria's agriculture sector—once hailed as a backbone of the nation’s economy—is now grinding under the weight of deep-seated structural issues, worsening insecurity, and climate instability. According to a recent analysis by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the country is experiencing its steepest drop in agricultural productivity in over 40 years, raising alarm bells over looming food security threats.

The NESG’s Industrial Policy Commission (IndPC) paints a sobering picture. Agricultural GDP growth, once a symbol of resilience, has fallen dramatically. Between 2002 and 2006, the sector enjoyed a robust average growth of 16.7 percent. However, recent figures show a sharp downturn, with average growth between 2021 and 2024 shrinking to a mere 1.2 percent—the weakest since the early 1990s.

While Nigeria's population swells and food demand escalates, the nation’s farms are falling silent. Productivity per hectare lags woefully behind global averages. Nigerian rice fields yield 1.9 metric tonnes per hectare, less than half the global benchmark of 4.7. Wheat fares worse at 1.1MT/ha against a global standard of 3.7, while maize achieves just 2.0MT/ha compared to 5.9 worldwide.

This productivity gap is forcing Nigeria into a costly dependence on food imports. The NESG estimates an annual domestic shortfall of 2.4 million tonnes of rice, 5.7 million tonnes of wheat, and 1.1 million tonnes of maize. Without swift corrective measures, the country edges closer to a food crisis.

The roots of this decline trace back to both longstanding inefficiencies and newer, more volatile threats. MacDonald Ukah, thematic lead for agriculture at the NESG, underscores how insecurity has turned fertile land into no-go zones. "Farmers are terrified to visit their farms," he said. The result is a visible drop in output as large swathes of farmland lie abandoned, overrun by insurgents and bandits.

Agricultural communities across Nigeria have increasingly come under siege from violence, forcing many rural dwellers to flee. Billions in investments have been wiped out, and those who remain often face rising production costs due to the need for private security. “It’s not just about seeds and fertilizer anymore,” a local agro-entrepreneur commented. “It’s about survival.”

Beyond human threats, the environment offers no reprieve. Farmers are now grappling with irregular rainfall patterns, destructive floods, and prolonged dry spells. The predictability that once defined planting seasons has vanished. Weather events, once rare and seasonal, are now frequent and damaging, shrinking the window of viable cultivation.

Experts say a fundamental rethink is urgent. The NESG has proposed a “food balance equation” as a roadmap for reform. This model emphasizes prioritizing domestic production, using imports only for necessary supplementation, and building strategic reserves to cushion shocks. Exports, they argue, should only occur after value addition and when genuine surpluses exist.

According to the NESG, the road to recovery must focus on tangible productivity reforms, not policy posturing. These include expanding access to mechanized farming tools and digital agriculture technologies, improving financial inclusion for smallholder farmers through affordable credit and insurance, and building climate resilience into farming practices.

Security, too, must be restored to Nigeria’s rural heartlands. Without it, no amount of investment or innovation can guarantee a return to growth. The group also stressed the importance of upgrading post-harvest infrastructure—such as cold chains, silos, and processing facilities—to curb massive food losses that occur after harvest.

Stakeholders across the agriculture sector agree: bold, sustained action is essential. “Productivity is the principal concern,” the NESG emphasized. Without it, even the best policies are little more than words on paper.

As Nigeria’s food system teeters on the edge, the choices made now will determine whether the nation feeds itself or continues down a costly path of dependence. The time for talk is over. The future demands action.