North-Central APC Forum Warns Tinubu Could Lose Northern Muslim Support If Shettima Is Dropped From 2027 Ticket

 

The debate over President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s running mate for the 2027 presidential election has taken a new twist as the North-Central All Progressives Congress (APC) Forum issued a strong caution against altering the current power arrangement. According to the group, the President stands the risk of losing as much as 80 percent of northern Muslim votes if Vice President Kashim Shettima is replaced under pressure from those agitating against the Muslim-Muslim ticket.

The warning was delivered in Abuja on Saturday by the Chairman of the forum, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, who was a member of the APC campaign council during the 2023 general election. Zazzaga insisted that maintaining Shettima as running mate remains the safest route for the ruling party to secure a second term victory for Tinubu.

The caution comes amid growing calls from various groups and stakeholders for the President to drop the Muslim-Muslim pairing which powered his 2023 win. Critics argue that the arrangement alienated Christian communities across the North, particularly in the Middle Belt, and was partly responsible for the APC’s defeat in states like Plateau, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory.

One of such voices is the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum, led by Dominic Alancha, which argued on a Channels Television program that the APC would further weaken its chances in the North if Tinubu retains Shettima in 2027. According to Alancha, repeating the same formula would be politically dangerous for the ruling party as it could deepen resentment in Christian dominated areas that already tilted toward Labour Party candidate Peter Obi in the last election.

The North-Central APC Forum, however, countered this position, describing the calls as baseless and mischievous. The group maintained that Tinubu’s success in 2023 was a product of a winning team and abandoning that strategy in 2027 would be a needless gamble. According to Zazzaga, there is no evidence that changing the Vice President to a Christian candidate would shift the loyalties of Christian communities in the Middle Belt or elsewhere, since many of them strongly supported Obi in the last election and are likely to do so again.

“The reality is that those clamoring for a Christian Vice President did not vote for Tinubu in 2023. Most of their votes went to Peter Obi. What guarantees do we have that they would switch sides in 2027 if Tinubu bows to their demand? It is unrealistic to expect such an outcome,” the group stated.

The forum further stressed that Tinubu has compensated Middle Belt Christians with strategic positions in his administration, including the APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume. According to Zazzaga, these appointments are enough to reassure Christians of inclusion, and as such, there is no fear of alienation in the region. He argued that the President could easily secure up to 90 percent of votes from the North-Central zone on the strength of these appointments combined with his performance in office.

The statement accused those campaigning against Shettima of trying to mislead the President into weakening his electoral chances. It noted that their intentions are not rooted in genuine concern for balance or inclusivity but in political mischief aimed at ensuring the APC fails in 2027.

Another issue raised by the forum was the alleged selective distribution of patronage in the North by individuals close to the President. According to Zazzaga, some political actors are focusing exclusively on northern Christian communities while neglecting Muslim communities, a move the forum warned could backfire. “If this continues, there is a risk that Tinubu may end up losing both sides, as Christians could still rally behind Peter Obi, while Muslims may feel abandoned and withdraw their support,” the statement added.

The group made it clear that any attempt to tamper with the Muslim-Muslim ticket could unravel Tinubu’s electoral base. The forum stressed that even replacing Shettima with another northern Muslim would send wrong signals and erode confidence among the Muslim population.

“Our advice is simple. Do not gamble with what worked in 2023. Retaining Kashim Shettima is the best option for 2027. The moment you replace him, you are bound to lose up to 80 percent of northern Muslim votes, no matter who the replacement is. The opposition is only trying to deceive Mr. President into making a costly mistake,” the statement concluded.

The caution highlights the deepening divide within the APC over the Muslim-Muslim ticket and sets the stage for a heated political debate ahead of 2027. For now, the ruling party appears torn between preserving its current arrangement that guarantees Muslim support in the North, and appeasing Christian voices calling for a more balanced ticket in the next election cycle.