Turkey Faces Urgent Population Challenge As Fertility Rates Decline Dramatically, Government Prioritizes Family Support Measures

 

Turkey is confronting a significant demographic shift, with authorities warning of a steep decline in fertility and a shrinking population of school-age children. Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas, Minister of Family and Social Services, addressed parliament's Planning and Budget Committee, revealing that half of Turkish households reportedly have no children. Projections by the Turkish Statistical Institute indicate that the number of primary-school-age children is expected to fall by 900,000 over the next five years, raising concerns about long-term societal and economic impacts.

Goktas emphasized that the weakening of family structures underpins many social challenges, defending the government’s declaration of 2026 as the "Year of the Family." She described the initiative as essential for safeguarding the nation's future, stressing that the population issue is central to Turkey’s survival. The minister argued that framing families as a political or ideological battleground undermines both women and families, calling such efforts "categorically unacceptable."

Declining birth rates, Goktas noted, cannot be solely attributed to economic factors such as income levels, employment, or GDP growth. She cited global examples, highlighting that countries across Europe and even nations formerly enforcing one-child policies are actively implementing measures to strengthen family life. According to the minister, the family should be considered a strategic priority worldwide, with governments recognizing its foundational role in societal stability.

Over the past 23 years, Turkey has enacted transformative reforms to enhance women’s participation in all aspects of public and private life. Goktas noted improvements spanning education, healthcare, politics, academia, the justice sector, culture, and the arts. She reassured citizens that these changes ensure women will not return to historical restrictions or guardian-like oversight, emphasizing gender empowerment alongside family support policies.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly highlighted the risks posed by declining birth rates, describing the situation as an existential threat to the nation’s future. Turkey’s fertility rate remains below the replacement threshold of 2.1, prompting government interventions aimed at encouraging larger families. Initiatives include benefits for early marriage, financial support for new parents, low-interest loans for newlyweds, and tax incentives for mothers who retire early after having three children. Despite these efforts, the anticipated increase in fertility has yet to materialize.

Erdogan has consistently called for the preservation of large, extended families and has publicly criticized practices such as birth control and caesarean sections, which he argues contribute to reduced fertility. Goktas echoed the president’s stance, advocating for policies that protect the family unit while also recognizing women’s autonomy and achievements. Authorities suggest that without decisive action, the declining population trend could exacerbate social and economic challenges, reinforcing the need for comprehensive family-centered strategies.

Demographers and policymakers now face the dual task of supporting family growth while maintaining progress in gender equality, with government leaders emphasizing that the two objectives are mutually reinforcing rather than contradictory. Turkey’s approach reflects a broader global concern about population decline, as nations worldwide explore measures to ensure sustainable demographic and social futures.