2027 Political Landscape Tilts in Favor of APC as Opposition Struggles to Unite

 

As the 2027 general elections inch closer, the political atmosphere in Nigeria is once again stirring with familiar currents. However, this time, what many anticipated would be a storm of fierce opposition against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is shaping up more like a whisper. With talks of a merger between two major opposition figures—Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party—failing to gain traction beyond social media speculation, APC insiders are brimming with confidence.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who clinched the presidency in 2023 amidst legal battles and a fragmented opposition, is positioning himself for a potentially smoother re-election bid. Party loyalists have begun to express unfiltered optimism, suggesting that even with a marginal voter turnout or relatively low vote count, Tinubu would be declared winner under Nigeria’s current electoral system.

One political strategist, who requested anonymity due to party sensitivity, put it bluntly: “Even if Tinubu gets just three million votes, the structure, the spread, and the system will likely ensure his return. The opposition isn't learning from history. Division is our greatest weapon.”

Meanwhile, speculations around a possible unification of forces between Atiku and Obi—two opposition juggernauts who collectively garnered over 13 million votes in the 2023 presidential polls—are failing to manifest into tangible political action. Though supporters on both sides continue to promote unity as the only viable path to dislodging APC from power, there appears to be little political will to make such a merger work at the leadership level.

Some within the PDP camp have reportedly raised concerns about Obi’s unpredictable political trajectory and whether he would truly commit to a shared platform. On the other hand, Obi’s supporters argue that aligning with Atiku, a politician with decades of old-guard baggage, would dilute Obi’s progressive appeal.

This disunity is proving to be a strategic gift to the APC.

Adding further wind to the ruling party’s sails is the expected re-entry of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and his Kwankwasiyya Movement into the fold. Though his party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), is yet to officially declare support for any candidate, there are strong indications that discussions with APC stalwarts are ongoing. Political observers believe that Kwankwaso’s influence in Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populous voting blocs, could provide Tinubu with a solid 25 percent in the state—an essential requirement under the constitution to secure victory.

Kano has long played a critical role in Nigeria’s presidential elections. In 2023, despite Obi’s rising popularity in urban areas, it was Kwankwaso’s NNPP that swept the votes in Kano, showcasing the sheer grip the movement holds on the electorate there. Should Kwankwasiyya tilt towards the APC, the opposition's chances would shrink dramatically, especially in the North.

It is this combination of a divided opposition and strategic northern alliances that has led many analysts to forecast another APC victory, barring any drastic political reconfiguration.

The mood within the APC is almost celebratory. At recent strategy meetings, key players within the party have reportedly shifted their focus from campaign defense to electoral dominance, mapping out routes not just to victory, but to a landslide one.

Social media, too, is playing a subtle but significant role in shaping the narrative. APC supporters continue to amplify the seeming disorganization in the opposition ranks, often trending hashtags that ridicule the prospect of a workable Atiku-Obi alliance. On the flip side, opposition voices are struggling to harmonize messaging, often engaging in intra-party squabbles that further fracture their base.

Political analysts have pointed out that unless the opposition moves swiftly to consolidate their forces, Tinubu may face the least resistance of any incumbent president since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) maintaining the current electoral guidelines that prioritize geographical spread over sheer vote count, APC’s robust national structure gives it an advantage that's hard to beat.

Though it's still over a year before campaigns formally begin, the groundwork being laid today will determine the outcomes of tomorrow. As things stand, the ruling party appears not just ready but eager to capitalize on the chaos around it.

Whether or not Atiku and Obi can overcome personal egos and ideological differences to forge a united front remains to be seen. For now, one thing is clear: the APC, under Tinubu’s leadership, is moving like a party that already sees victory on the horizon.